Ray Kurzweil claims we are on the verge of medical immortality where the life expectancy of the elderly increases more than one year every year, pushing death further away each year we live.
I have claimed that today a 100 year old human has a life expectancy of only one year and this number has changed very little in the past few millennia. This report indicates the value is closer to 2.5 years. If Ray Kurzweil is right this number is increasing significantly.
If major changes were occurring in this area then we should see a dramatic increase in the number of people over 110. But we don't. It is extremely rare to find someone over 110, And considering the large population of our planet it might even be harder to live to 110 today than it was 100 years ago.
Medical immortality is unreachable until the life expectancy of centenarians begins to increase dramatically.
Ray Kurzweil is correct about one aspect of this discussion, the odds of living to be 100 years old are increasing every year and I agree that the number of centenarians will rise every year. It's very reasonable to think that in a few decades everyone should expect to live to be 100. But then they will have to accept that they probably won't make it to see 110.