The world in 2030

The National Intelligence Council writes global forecasts. Here is the forecast for 2030 written in late 2012. The next forecast (for 2035) will be published in late 2016.

The discussion of black swans was interesting. I disagree with the narrow focus of financial disasters, they focus on only on the Euro zone. I think there is a very high chance of a nightmare financial collapse in the United States. The reason is that the US Government cannot and will not effectively police the financial markets. Financial derivatives have skyrockted recently, including the frightening bespoke tranche opportunity. In addition the US is almost certain to default on its debt by the year 2030. Medicare will bankrupt our country and there is no political leadership to avoid it.

The discussion of the pandemic was good but there was no mention of a more likely pandemic, not for humans, but for our food chain. Rust is a powerful fungus which is devastating the world's wheat crops, and it is moving from the Middle East towards the breadbasket of India.